Pdf the intelligence community uses structured analytic. The original ach methodology will be introduced again in the paper. Approaches to detecting deception in the military environment have focused on analysis of competing hypotheses ach 26, 43, the busbywhaley ombudsmen technique, and a more holistic approach to. Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. Heuers analysis of competing hypotheses ach heuer 1999, while not developed explicitly for counterdeception, specifies how to consider inconsistent and anomalous information, develop competing hypotheses which can include deceptions, and test hypotheses in a. Following this, two models of crime analysis are discussed with a view to highlighting commonalities as well as conceptual gaps. How to structure analysis of competing hypotheses ach. Competing hypothesis an overview sciencedirect topics. Analysis of competing hypotheses, which we automate by generating statebased plans and converting them to bayesian belief networks. Mar 21, 2019 the analysis of competing hypotheses ach. How to structure analysis of competing hypotheses ach by.
Since the method is thorough it is suitable for controversial issues when an. The method is used to evaluate multiple competing hypotheses for data that is observed and it is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology and decision analysis. Test of the analysis of competing hypotheses in legal. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis and is explicit. Analysis of competing hypotheses military wiki fandom. As we have included ach in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make wellreasoned, analytical judgments using both nongeospatial and geospatial information.
The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method. The fourth section outlines the major cognitive biases that bedevil analysts. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions psychology of intelligence analysis in this paper, we adopted the concept of ach and its procedure of analysis. I cited, for example, the paper by valtorta, marco et al. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with bayesian. In turn, the hypotheses could be refined by careful strategic analysis, including the application of game theory to questions of how states would behave under. Analysis usually involves creating models, even though they may not be labeled as such. Analysis of competing hypothesis for investigating lone. We set forth certain understandings and expectations about causeandeffect relationships and then process and. A little something used by intelligence analysts the world over. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. Because this book is now out of print, this portable document file pdf.
Defined by heuer, the analysis of competing hypotheses is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. A pdf of this type expresses the uncertain probability that a process will. Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm all plausible hypotheses. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. Application of alternative competing hypotheses to supply. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a framework for assisted reasoning that would help overcome these limitations. Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use. Our model is based on a process called analysis of competing hypotheses ach.
Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic achsl. Nov 01, 2016 disprove your hypotheses you can have all the evidence in the world to back one hypothesis but if there is one piece of evidence that disproves it you can reject it. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a. Apr 22, 2009 analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. Identify all the possible hypotheses, making sure they are mutually exclusive. Make inferences about how we think the system works f. Collect data and confront competing statistical models with the data e.
Critical epistemology for analysis of competing hypotheses. Deception detection by analysis of competing hypotheses. Keywords confirmation bias, hypothesis testing, intelligence analysis, judgement and decision making. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with. Next we describe prior work that guides our approach. The next section describes analysis of competing hypotheses. Exploring the impact of executive orders using analysis of. For a long time humans were accepting the truth of a hypothesis by offering supporting evidences. It is a procedure for determining which of a range of hypotheses is most likely to be true, given the available evidence. The process of analysis itself reinforces this natural function of the human brain. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses acha technique designed to reduce confirmation bias. The open source analysis of competing hypotheses project.
Much of intelligence analysis includes judging the relevance and the value of evidence to determine the likelihood of competing hypotheses. Pdf applying heuers analysis of competing hypotheses ach. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a law enforcement process that can prevent cognitive biases and,since the matrix leaves a trail of evidence, it can be traced back easily to reevaluate if something goes wrong. Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
To be able to do this we use a well known analysis method called analysis of competing hypotheses ach 6, 8. A place for analysis of competing hypotheses ach in cyber. Intelligence vendors, producers and consumers use ach to evaluate a threat based on the available evidence. One of the most intriguing concepts in heuers book is found in chapter 8, the analysis of competing hypotheses ach. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach example graduateway. Section 4 describes how we automate ach by generating statebased plans which represent alternate hypotheses and convert the plans into belief networks. Hart series 1, no 34 the analysis of competing hypotheses ach in the assessment of chemical warfare activities national defence university department of strategic and defence studies. Put simply, ach is a method analysts can use to evaluate hypotheses against a given range of evidence. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multi variable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of. The intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. Popper was one of the most influential philosophers of science of. This chapter discusses four techniques for testing hypotheses. Ach is a process whereby you identify a set of hypotheses, systematically evaluate data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and reject the hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data.
Dick heuers ideas on how to improve analysis focus on helping. Heuers concept of analysis of competing hypotheses ach is. Heuer, 1999 is a technique used in intelligence community to. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Cha is a basic analysis methodology that has relevance to a variety of competitive intelligence issues. Stepbystep outline of analysis of competing hypotheses 1 identify the possible hypotheses to be considered. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against all the hypotheses. In particular, the analysis phase involves the management of hypotheses and the application of prior knowledge. Analysis of competing hypotheses is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. Pdf analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach, was developed by richards heuer specifically for use in intelligence analysis. Pdf detecting deception by analysis of competing hypotheses. Pdf analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective.
One of these, analysis of competing hypotheses ach, was developed by richards heuer specifically for use in intelligence analysis. Mandel3 1department of psychology, middlesex university, london, uk 2department of management science, university of strathclyde, glasgow, uk 3intelligence, influence and collaboration section, drdc. The intelligence community uses ach methodology when there are multiple potential explanations for adversary behavior or several possible outcomes from actions taken by an ally. May 12, 2017 one tool the advanced research interns worked with this semester was the analysis of competing hypotheses ach methodology.
Hypotheses system is a decision analysis tool developed by the intelligence community to aid analysts in decision making. A tool for generating, structuring, and analyzing multiple. In step 3, you worked across the matrix, focusing on a single item of evidence or argument and examining against each hypotheses. Consider carefully past studies and competing hypotheses h. Ach is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses ach a.
Our process uses a concept from bayesian classification to identify distinguishing evidence that a deceiver must hide and a counterdeceiver. New jersey division of criminal justice 1 richards j. Summary the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach has been suggested to be a method that can protect against confirmation bias in the context of intelligence analysis. A place for analysis of competing hypotheses ach in. Analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis. Pdf the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis.
It takes you through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. Dec 31, 2007 the analysis of competing hypotheses method, or ach, is one of the most important tools on the intelligence analysts bench. Analysis of competing hypotheses a hypothesis is a declarative statement that has not been established as true. The software downloadable here takes an analyst through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. The stakeholders of a system to be may have conflicting goals. Isbn 9789512525751 pdf issn 12364959 the analysis of competing hypotheses ach in the assessment of chemical warfare activities john d. Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method to.
In our tool, these hypotheses are then evaluated through a process inspired by the analytical method called analysis of competing hypotheses ach 2. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses has advantages and disadvantages. Among the advantages is that ach is easy to implement in a facilitated setting, as the inputs are limited, and ach software provides a rudimentary display of how evidence relates to a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses palo alto research center 2006. Create statistical hypotheses and models that have observable quantities in them d. Test multiple hypotheses analysis of competing hypotheses heuer, 1999 is a technique developed in intelligence circles for analysts to avoid the major cognitive biases while assessing multiple hypotheses. How does analysis of competing hypotheses ach pherson. In the current study, we aimed to determine whether ach could counter confirmation bias in the reasoning with evidence in the context of criminal law proceedings. Designed for strategic and tactical intelligence analysis national security, defence, trade, etc. Alternative analysis, and in particular ach, is seen as so important that the cias sherman kent school for intelligence analysis runs a monthly alternative analysis workshop and has introduced an. The challenge is to create better formal methods of analysis that can be used under a wider variety of circumstances and which can handle both empirical data and formallyexpressed beliefs as evidence for. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach promises a relatively objective and tractable methodology for ranking the plausibility of competing. Analysis of competing hypothesis for investigating lone wolf.
The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. But in some industries, two competitors can compete with each other and do stupid things freddie mac and fannie mae they drove prices for insuring loans down to improper levels. Pdf the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. See an alternative views produce a more confident hypothesis one hypothesis will score stronger that the rest h1, h2, h3 based on available evidence.
Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes. Ach is a tool to aid judgment on important issues which require careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Resolving goal conflicts via argumentationbased analysis of. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach by moe kiss the. Problem description analysis of competing hypotheses eightstep. Oct 29, 2018 one of these is techniques is analysis of competing hypotheses ach.
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